financialRecap.com

My Online Money Manager Program

I'm leaving this post at the top of the blog. I have written an money manager program for myself, and I'm offering it for use on the internet. There are lots of free sites like mint.com, but the thing I don't like about them is that you have to give out your bank account numbers and "link" to them online. I don't want to do that. My program lets you enter your transaction manually, or you can cut/past from your bank account statements. Also, I can do custom programming for you, custom reports and so on. Here's the link to this program, which lets you easily manage your finances online: Online Money Manager

Friday February 05 2016

Dow down 211.61 or 1.29% to 16,204.97. Nasdaq down 146.42 or 3.25% to 4,363.14. S&P 35.4 or 1.85% to 1,880.05.

Grasso key S&P Levels: Down from 1947, the levels to watch are 1879 and 1863. If we break 1863, bail on the market.

If you break 1863, then you go to 1820 and then 1812. He says the January low but I don't know where he's getting that the S&P came no where near 1812 in January... I have no idea where he's getting that 1812 number.

Guy Adami says 1780 is the key number that breaks the trendline.

By the way you can hear podcasts of the most recent fast money show on podbay.fm...

According to a mishtalk.com post, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist Steen Jakobsen is giving the first support level on the S&P at 1813/15, which it breached for a short time on Thursday 2/11/16. After that, look for 1560/80 on the S&P, a 13% further drop from 1813.

Thursday January 28 2016

Dow up 125.18 or 0.79% to 16,069.64. Nasdaq up 38.51 or 0.86% to 4,506.68. S&P 10.41 or 0.55% to 1,893.36.

Grasso: at the end of this week you get that pension rebalance so you can get that false fluff into the marketplace. WHY didn't he tell me this before I jumped in on the double-short DOW this afternoon!

Well my new plan is to split my betting money into 2 parts. Because of free-riding, I wasn't able to sell my last investment, where I would have made about $1,400 in a day. By the time I could sell, I only made about $400. By splitting my total pot of about $20,000 into 2 groups of $10,000 (call it, Army Group A and Army Group B), I'll be able to rotate back and forth and not get stuck where I can't buy when I need to or can't sell when I need to. The only downside is now I have just half as much invested, but I think I'll have it all invested, just in different time frames. Actually, because of the 3-day free-riding rule, what you really need is 3 groups of funds. Well, let me see how this works out.

By the way, to reiterate my strategy for 2015/2016, I see a general down direction in the market. But it doesn't go straight down, it goes up and down in the general direction of down. So whenever I see an UP of 1% or close to 1% in the DOW, I jump in on the DXD. Within 3 to 5 days, I hope to have it close down and make at least 2% on the investment. (2% every 3 days isn't bad!). So far it's been working good EXCEPT when I got killed at the flash crash in August 2015, after which the market went straight up non-stop for days in a row not giving me a chance to get out.

Wednesday January 13 2016

Dow down 364.81 or 2.21% to 16,151.41. Nasdaq down 159.85 or 3.41% to 4,526.06. S&P 48.4 or 2.50% to 1,890.28.

Dan Nathan says we're headed to 1820 in the S&P.

BK says we're looking at 1820 or 1810, but 1620 is in the cards.

Raoul Pal is on, he's predicting the U.S. 10 year to go to .5% by next year!!! He's also saying we could be looking at S&P 1600 by sometime in the first quarter, then pause for a lot longer. He also said he's not shorting yet, the best time to short is in February, because in January usually everyone has a fresh P&L, everyone puts all their trades on, everyone gets washed out in February, then reset their position.

Another market technical analsyst MPM Partners chief technical analyst Jonathan Krimski says 1880 level is the uptrend line, we can expect a bounce there, but this 3rd test of the August lows probably gives way, looking at this 1820 level, which is where we found support in February of 2014. You can expect a bounce at 1820. 1575 is your worst case scenario, only 25% off the highs. The trend is now down.



Thinks China WILL devalue in a meaningful way.

Monday January 11 2016

Dow up 52.12 or 0.32% to 16,398.57. Nasdaq down 5.64 or 0.12% to 4,637.99. S&P up 1.64 or 0.09% to 1,923.67.

Adami says we might retest the 1970 highs on the S&P.

Grasso: We have to dip below that 1900 level, we did stall at 1901 which was encouraging.

Dan Nathan: will short the SPY, but will wait until the S&P gets back up to 2100 (well Dan, it hasn't been up there since Dec 1, and I don't think it's going back up there anytime soon!). He did say "I know it's a long ways away"

Thursday January 07 2016

Dow down 392.41 or 2.32% to 16,514.10. Nasdaq down 146.34 or 3.03% to 4,689.43. S&P 47.17 or 2.37% to 1,943.09.

Adami says 1920 is the critical level.

Grasso says we open up higher, 1969 look out for, below that 1930, below that 1867. If we trade below that, there's no reason for the market to stop.

Wednesday January 06 2016

Dow down 252.15 or 1.47% to 16,906.51. Nasdaq up 55.67 or 1.14% to 4,835.76. S&P 26.45 or 1.31% to 1,990.26.

grasso 1969 fib retracw test 1867 beaks: could see 1620 on the S&P 500 Other technician says 1990 is suppert

Tuesday January 05 2016

Dow down 9.72 or 0.06% to 17,158.66. Nasdaq up 11.66 or 0.24% to 4,891.43. S&P 4.05 or 0.20% to 2,016.71.

Steven Suttmeier of Bank of America sets key S&P levels

BofA chief equity technical analyst says we now have S&P support at 1995 to 1965, and resistance at 2038 - 2044, up to levels of 2070-2080.

Best case he's looking at S&P 2100. To call a top he says that the 1965 level needs to be broken.

Friday December 25 2015

Dow down 50.44 or 0.29% to 17,552.17. Nasdaq up 2.56 or 0.05% to 5,048.49. S&P 3.3 or 0.16% to 2,060.99.

Dan Dicker of Merc-block and author of the book "Shale boom, shale bust: The Myth of Saudi Arabia" seems to know his stuff.

He says the "safe" resource plays to consider after the price of oil goes back up in late 2016 are:

Here's a link to that video on Yahoo finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2016-oil-outlook--will-an-equilibrium-price-be-found-145359859.html
  • Simery

    Friday December 11 2015<\h2>

    Dow down 309.54 or 1.76% to 17,265.21. Nasdaq up 111.71 or 2.21% to 4,933.47. S&P 39.86 or 1.94% to 2,012.37.

    Guy Adami Fast Money calls 2020 the level to watch in the S&P

    In the S&P the critical level is 2020 closing for the Month of December. If we close below 2020 for December he says we are in trouble.

    Jump back in my double-short

    Despite getting KILLED my my DXD double short the DOW position between early October 5 and November 9, as the market basically went STRAIGHT UP for a month! If I had displine I would have pulled out on the first downturn which was October 14... But no I held on until November 9th and finally got out on a small downturn.

    However I jumped back in yesterday 12/10 on a nice upsurge, and got rewarded with a huge downturn today netting me 4% or $715 on my $18,000 investment (or, bet...). However I can't sell today because I'd be freeriding, so I'm hoping for a flat day or even a down day on Monday!

    Thursday December 03 2015

    Dow down 252.01 or 1.42% to 17,477.67. Nasdaq up 85.7 or 1.67% to 5,037.53. S&P 29.89 or 1.44% to 2,049.62.

    Adami calls 2019 a critical level of support in the S&P

    Raoul Pal calls for a recession

    ISM broke 50: means a 65% chance of a recession in the U.S., most of the world already in a recession (not Europe yet, but soon).

    Wednesday December 02 2015

    Dow down 158.67 or 0.89% to 17,729.68. Nasdaq down 33.08 or 0.64% to 5,123.22. S&P 23.12 or 1.10% to 2,079.51.

    Interesting comments on Oil from Ed Morse: Global head of commodities at City

    Says oil will stay under pressure, will be under even more pressure in Q1 when Iran is expected to come back in the market. Mark Cashin: worried about assault on $40. Ed says we are oversupplied by 2 billion barrels of oil right now (including strategic petroleum reserve). Says likely light at the end of the tunnel at the end of 2016, market will go into balance with inventory draws, looking for a $55 WTI at the end of 2016.

    How to play that? How about, buy solid integrateds like maybe Chevron, with a big dividend, buy on any dip, collect your dividends for a year and wait for the oil price to go up at the end of 2016 (along with your stock price)????

    Ed: the market expects the price not going to go up significantly through 2016 and maybe through 2017, he says too narrow minded, he says it's almost a certain bet that we will see lower non-opec production for 2016.

    Monday November 16 2015

    Dow up 237.77 or 1.38% to 17,483.01. Nasdaq up 56.73 or 1.15% to 4,984.62. S&P 30.15 or 1.49% to 2,053.19.

    OK I jumped into my double-short of the DOW (DXD) near the end of the day. Could be a mistake. As Guy Adami says on Fast Money today, the reason for the rally in the wake of the tragedy in Paris is just that: due to geopolitical problems, the market is hoping for a delay in the feared December rate hike.

    How that plays out over the next few days is a mystery, I'm ready to jump out of my double-short at any moment.

    Carter Worth is saying in technical analysis, the S&P upward range, has broken a key level and will be headed down to the bottom of the range, which would put it at 1800 in the S&P. Also 2100 on the S&P is a level that keeps getting crossed, so I'm hoping it will go back down below 2100. (Why do I care about the S&P when I'm double-shorting the DOW? They all seem to move pretty much in tandem anyway. But I may need to switch to the S&P later on my double-short and/ or double-long bets).

    Monday November 02 2015

    Dow up 165.22 or 0.94% to 17,828.76. Nasdaq up 73.4 or 1.45% to 5,127.15. S&P 24.69 or 1.19% to 2,104.05.

    Closing bell guy: 2100 on S&P crossed 48 times between Feb and August, key level Fast Money, Guy: Exxon and Chevron up 4.4% and 3.07% each, even though oil is down, Guy says expensive at 21 times forward earnings. I disagree, with interest rates at zero percent, it's all about the dividend. Who cares what forward earnings are as long as you can reap that fat dividend? And we all know in the long run oil will go up.

    Wednesday September 02 2015

    Dow up 293.03 or 1.82% to 16,351.38. Nasdaq up 113.87 or 2.46% to 4,749.98. S&P 35.01 or 1.83% to 1,948.86.

    Dan Nathan on Fast money: "S & P, 2050 is going to be massive resistance, I think we probably fail there, if you see equities rally to those levels, I think you use the opportunity to sell." (Paraphrased).

    Well we didn't close anywhere near 2050 (call it 1950), but I'm continuing with my "buy the DXD (double-short DOW) on any rise more than 1%, sell it on any fallback more than 1%". But it seems like it's better to wait until the very end of the day to jump in.

    Since I can't play in the off hours, I have to decide the day before when I'm going to jump in, and it's been incredibly successful for me so far. Even though, with my strategy, I missed the big down 1000 point day last Tuesday because it messes up my system when the DOW goes down three straight days in a row. Dangit! But I'm still making a 2% or so every few days. Adds up quick!

    By the way I'm so sick of Tim Seymour saying a lot of words, and when you add them all up they seem to say nothing at all. Really annoying! I LOVE Beaks, his words actually have meaning...

    Grasso: thinks we ultimately trade down below 1700 on the S&P. Dan Nathan; S&P was between 2050 and 2100 all year, with a lot of churning, and you may be below 1800 very soon again. (That would be 7.6% more down as of now).

    Sunday June 28 2015 - Greece Crisis

    After massive agonizing on Friday, reading Zerohedge and Twitter obsessively, had to decide whether to put all my chips on Red (no-deal), or Black (deal). Finally jumped in with a double-short the DOW, all my chips on Red: the DXD. Think I'm going to make out? Funny I put a comment on zero hedge about this on Saturday and someone put in a vote (just with the up or down buttons in the comments), who thinks stocks will be up on Monday? Down? The Up's won by a big margin. Can't understand those people! Of course stocks will be down BIG TIME on Monday!

    Best place to stay on top of fast moving events

    Well you all probably already know this but I finally found out for myself: best place to watch is Twitter! You'll see pictures of the people queuing up for ATMs well before anyone (except Zerohedge of course) reports it!

    Tim Seymour on Fast Money driving me crazy

    The question was posed, last week I think, what is more important, the Fed announcment or Greece? Old Tim stuck to his guns and said of course the Fed announcement was much more important! Ha! I wonder if he'll retract that statement tomorrow! I still remember his statement I think 2 or 3 years ago "Greece is OVER". The amusement with Tim just never ends!

    Monday May 19 2014

    As of 3:33 PM EST it's all flat: Dow down 10.6 or 0.06% to 16,501.91. Nasdaq up 30.47 or 0.74% to 4,121.05. S&P 6 or 0.32% to 1,883.86.

    Some new blogs

    Anyone who reads financialrecap.com knows, this blog sucks... Sorry! Just can't seem to devote the time to it. But every once in a while I have a good article. Well may not article, but a good paragraph. BUT, my favorite blog is the ultimate: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    Mish is awesome! Although he can be boring at times. But he sure is "on the money" a lot. I like zerohedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/) but the thing about zerohedge is that they are constantly bearish and negative about everything. Yes, I know it's all going to crash soon, but I need information to help me make money off what is happening now. So if you are always negative, you can't tell, is this REALLY something that signals I should sell short? Or just another kind of whining, complaining, sarcastic article that doesn't help me make money.

    Anyway Mish's blog today pointed me to some other blogs I hadn't noticed before, and that look interesting:

    Well, after looking a little more closely, those blogs aren't all that good after all. But

    Dow down 10.6 or 0.06% to 16,501.91. Nasdaq up 30.47 or 0.74% to 4,121.05. S&P 6 or 0.32% to 1,883.86.

    Monday January 27 2014

    Dow down 41.23 or 0.26% to 15,837.88. Nasdaq up 44.56 or 1.08% to 4,083.61. S&P down 8.73 or 0.49% to 1,781.56.

    Fast Money People start to panic!



    Wow was Dennis Gartman gloomy today! Things can turn on a dime and it looks like that thing has been hit!

    I guess maybe Apple down 50 bucks is what has everyone concerned... All of a sudden after all these years of warnings (Pettis, Mish), they just now realize China has a problem! But Dennis's gloomy face just showed it all.. "Todays new home sales was a disconcerting number". "Now I think it's time to be somewhat frightened". and.. "As Douggie Cass says: 'Risk happens fast'!".

    Saturday, Nov 23 2013

    Starting to post links to good videos

    I want to build financial video links to the most important videos of the day. I'll sift through all the videos on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc., and post the important ones.

    The global finanical system is obviously on the path to ruin, the only questions are on the (a) timing, and (b) how can I profit from it?. It's really hard to predict the timing of these things, for example you can see that eventually the USD is going to crash, but if you shorted it recently you got killed! So many bad things are happening, so many straws are getting piled onto the camels back, it's just a matter of time before it breaks, but as Keynes wrote, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"! So I'm still trying to figure out, what is going to happen in the next 5 years? More deflation? Inflation? War? Zombie Apocalypse? And how to profit from it all?

    So the important videos I'm looking for are:

    Thursday January 23 2014

    Dow down 175.99 or 1.07% to 16,197.35. Nasdaq up 24.13 or 0.57% to 4,218.87. S&P 16.4 or 0.89% to 1,828.46.

    Couple of things in Fast Money today


    Comment by Guy Adami was pretty interesting... As for the 175 point drop in the DOW and the China numbers, "there are a lot of warning signs out there all of a sudden"... all of a sudden????. The China slowdown has been predicted for years by people like Mish and Pettis. Anyone with a brain can see that we are on the edge of a precipice, it's only a matter of time before we drop off. How we lasted this long is a mystery, is it just massive Fed printing? Is something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about... Anyway it's so painfully obvious that the world economy is headed for a major disaster, probaby everyone "in the know" is ready to pull the trigger and sell out at the first sign of the disaster starting.
    Beaks got the problem in Venezuala wrong... They are showing the exchange rate at 8, and Beaks is saying "black market could be trading as much as 50% higher today"... Not even close... Official rate is 6.3 (or call it 8 that they are showing), and black market rate is 79 Bolivars per dollar... uh... that's 980% higher, not 50% higher... !!

    Saturday, May 25 2013

    money64.com moved to winhost

    I have moved my money64.com site from the hosting provider discountASP.net to winHost.com. discountASP.net is GREAT, but I had sites at both discountASP and at winHost.com, and winHost.com is a lot cheaper, and also had SQL server for free, where on discountASP.net you had to pay extra for SQL server. I converted money64.com from using a Microsoft Access database to using SQL Server quite a while ago, and there are a LOT of functionality improvements that I made that weren't available on the site. (I was using the SQL server version locally on my own PC).

    So, money64.com is a great FREE site where you can track all your financial transactions, without having to link your personal accounts to the system.

    Some of the functionality improvements to the site revolve around credit cards. There is a new "credit card report" which keeps track of things like interest rates, available credit, percent full, etc. So, for example, for your credit rating you would like all your credit cards to be less than X% full (80% at one level, and I think it was 50% at another level). You can sort the report descending by "percent full" to start working on the cards on which you need to reduce the balance. It also gives you totals, so you can see your total credit card debt at any point in time. A great tool to help you get OUT of credit card debt!

    Sunday March 17 2013

    Nannycrats steal 10% of Cyprus bank depositors funds!!!!!

    Wow... THIS IS IT. They definetly never should have tried this. Now, everyone in Europe is going to be saying, do I want to put my money in a bank??? No f-ing way!!! Wow... What a huge mistake by the bureaucrats. Usually they are smart, they steal your money in ways you kind quite understand. This time they just blatently take anyone's money that has a balance in a bank account!!!!!!!!!

    Here is the Reuters article: Cyprus Deposit Levy

    Hmmm according to that, they haven't actually done the levy yet??? Here is a better article from Bloomberg: Cyprus Deposit Levy Bloomberg Zerohedge has gone ape over this.. tons of articles... One good comment I heard is that it's a "lose-lose" situation. If they don't do the bailout, the banks collapse. If they do do the bailout, they steal 10% (OK it's 9.9% over 100,000 EUR, and 6.7% under) of peoples deposits. OK, if I have 5,000 euros, where am I going to keep it? In the bank??? No f-ing way, if I know they can take X% of my money on a whim! I'll just put cash in a file cabinet, buy some gold or silver, store it in my matress, or whatever...

    Friday February 15 2013

    Dow down 40.32 or 0.29% to 13,933.07. Nasdaq down 10.47 or 0.33% to 3,188.19. S&P 5.12 or 0.34% to 1,516.26.

    Is the meteor signalling the beginning of the end?

    So, is it the start of the zombie apocalypse? Or possibly the second coming. I'm only half kidding, because I really have the feeling that we are somewhere near the beginning of the end times. I just hope it will hold off for, say, at least 50 years...! (Well, I have a 1-year-old, I don't want her to live through the end times, so make it 100 years...).
    Anyway, so far I have not seen any zombies near Kent, Ohio. The best video I've seen of the meteor that struck today is here: Huge meteor in Russia!

    This is another good video, but skip ahead to about 40 seconds in to get to the meteor:
    Better meteor video

    Sunday January 27 2013

    From Friday: Dow up 70.65 or 0.51% to 13,895.98. Nasdaq up 19.33 or 0.62% to 3,149.71. S&P 8.14 or 0.54% to 1,502.96. I found a great video on Kyle Bass' web site where he was interviewed about Japan, and his take on Japan. The bottom line, Japan implodes within 2 years. Excellent video: Kyle Bass on Japan

    Monday October 01 2012

    Dow up 77.98 or 0.58% to 13,515.11. Nasdaq up 2.7 or 0.09% to 3,113.53. S&P 3.82 or 0.27% to 1,444.49.

    Interesting guy on Fastmoney today. Focuses on 13D filings, apparently his fund is up 15% for the year. So he focuses on "activist" investors like Bill Ackman. The 13D activist investor fund: Ken Squire. Wow he's got a "linked-in" page. Apparently he has a weekly column in Barrons magazine called "The activist spotlight".

    DDDAX is the symbol for the 13D activist fund.

    Again, interesting!

    Here are a couple of videos about this guy:
    Fast Money Interview with Ken Squire 10/1/12
    Active-Passive Investor Summit Interview with Ken Squire April 2012

    Friday May 25 2012

    Dow up 74.92 or 0.60% to 12,454.83. Nasdaq down 1.85 or 0.07% to 2,837.53. S&P 2.86 or 0.22% to 1,317.82.

    You know, I'm getting a little tired of zerohedge. For a while there, zerohedge was my favorite financial blog to read, but with globalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com in close second. Well Mish at globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com is definetly now my favorite.

    Of course, Mish is somewhat annoying too... A little to quick to call people "fools"... A little too opinionated. But the problem with zerohedge is they have this cynical attidue, always saying, kind of, smart-ass comments, but with nothing BACKING it... I'm having a hard time describing what I mean... I guess, they make a cynical comment, and act like they know something that you don't know that justifies their comment. But at least Mish gives the full details. The recent analysis of Mish on the European crisis is excellent, such as in these articles:

    Monday December 12 2011

    Dow down 162.87 or 1.34% to 12,021.39. Nasdaq down 34.59 or 1.31% to 2,612.26. S&P down 18.72 or 1.49% to 1,236.47.

    The ups and downs continue, all based on the craziness happening in Europe.

    I DID get one good idea from Fast Money: hmmm intel is down 4% today, due to a cut in forcast because of "supply shortages of hard disk drives". BUT, at a P/E of about 10, and with a 4% dividend, this seems like a good time to buy (and hold) INTEL!

    Tuesday November 15 2011

    Dow up 17.18 or 0.14% to 12,096.16. Nasdaq up 28.98 or 1.09% to 2,686.20. S&P up 6.03 or 0.48% to 1,257.81.

    Saw a great video featuring Kyle Bass on Zerohedge: Zero Hedge Kyle Bass This is talking about the inevitability of a Greek default, and explaining it very well, in a very easy to understand way. And I like the part about "Greece has the ECB by the short hairs" hehehe...

    Actually that was just a link from zerohedge to the BBC. Then, I was like, who is this Kyle Bass guy? Seems to know a lot, then I found this on youtube, very similar, does this guy REALLY know what he's talking about or now? Kyle Bass impending Greek default

    Hmm Kyle Bass seems to be an inflationista. I wonder how our buddy Mish views him?

    Friday September 30 2011

    Dow down 240.6 or 2.16% to 10,913.38. Nasdaq down 65.36 or 2.63% to 2,415.40. S&P down 28.98 or 2.50% to 1,131.42.

    Andy Busch (this guy seems good) on that stupid currency trading show on CNBC had a good ending point: "Pessimism burnout by the end of next week". This could be a good trade. This is my MAJOR trade. This trade is so damn simple I can't believe everyone is not doing it. Just double-short or double-long the S&P (or the DOW), with a fairly tight stop. Go with your feelings, luke.... Will it go UP 2% today, or DOWN 2% today? I almost ALWAYS get this right. So that's a good idea to look at: look for an up 2% day next week... maybe towards the end...

    OK here is the strategy: look at Europe, Asia, and futures. If they are pointing down, go for the double-short DOW first thing in the morning. If they are pointing up, go for the double-long DOW first thing in the morning.

    Just to prove DDM works pretty good, the DOW was down 2.16% today, and it worked out about right, DDM was down 4.22%. Yep, I'll go DDM at 48.17 for Monday, put a stop at... uh... 47.50 (a little more than 1%). So you don't get stopped out too early.

    Of course we have the non-farm payroll report on Friday. That may lead to.. umm... things we don't expect.. Hard to factor all that in... As my Dr. always says, "Hard to tell..."

    Cramer has a good stock, utility, TECO (TE), 5% dividend... Hmmm... I'd like to make 5% a year on some of my money... Might be a good idea. Probably needs more research, could someone come up with some comments on that one?

    Friday 8/19/11

    You know I'm getting a little tired of all these blogs that do nothing but give us the gloom and doom view. Like zerohedge.com. One of my FAVORITE web sites, don't get me wrong, I read it EVERY day. The problem is, they NEVER report on anything positive. And they exaggerate everything negative. The BIG problem with all these websites is, they don't give us any ideas on how to profit from this fucking stuff! You see?

    So, anyway, I got an idea from Kudlow today on how to make some profits! David Kotek: Piedmont Natural Gas: raised dividend every year for the last 33 years. Good idea! Lets look at dividend payers, especially in the energy "space". I hate saying "in the XXX SPACE". So cliche. I hate hearing that. But ANYWAY, dividend payers are key. I have ALWAYS loved dividend paying stocks, especially dividend ARISTOCRATS that increase their dividend year after year for X years.

    HEY. I just found a great example of the value of SILVER. Remember the "Code of Hammurabi"???? OK this ruler of Babylon, 2000 or so BC (whatever..). These laws are NOT TOO BAD considering it's 2000 years before Christ (OK call it 4,000 years ago). So, anyway, one of them was:

    If anyone finds runaway male or female slaves in the open country and brings them to their masters, the master of the slaves shall pay him two shekels of silver.
    OK Wayne! 2 Shekels of silver! But the point is... SILVER IS MONEY... hmmm...

    No to get the FULL picture of inflation since 4000 years ago, what we need to do is figure out what a "mina of gold" is. How many ounces? I think maybe we are doing OK! OR, maybe gold has a long way to go up! For example, law #198:

    198. If he put out the eye of a freed man, or break the bone of a freed man, he shall pay one gold mina.
    Hmmm... Then on another site I find a Mina of gold is 25 ounces! Dang... OK at todays prices (call it 1850), that would be $46,000! So if I put out the eye of a freed man it costs me $46,000? Hmm I think it's cheaper now, maybe we have DEFLATION?

    Speaking of web sites, which are my top blog reads. And maybe the readers (I have, like, 3 readers) of this blog can say what their top top financial web sites to read are. Here they are:

    1. Zerohedge
    2. GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com (Can't he make the name a litle smaller?)
    3. Market-ticker.org

    Wednesday 8/3/11

    Must see video: Peter Schiff on Yahoo's BREAKOUT

    This looks bad: Silent Run on Greek Banks!!!

    Friday 7/22/11

    We better keep an eye on how much money they have left in the U.S. treasury! Here is where you can find pretty close to the current balance (the latest one is as of Wednesday):

    Daily Treasury Statement

    Well, as of Wednesday we've got 103 billion sitting in there.... Seems like that should last us a while... Hmmmmm... but we had a net drop in the balance of 5.4 billion for Wednesday...

    Tuesday 7/12/11

    A GREAT post from Dylan Ratigan on "What I read". I'm posting it here in case the link disappears. This is key for keeping up on the fast moving developments in the financial world:

    How do other people deal with the torrent of information that pours down on us all? What sources can't they live without? We regularly reach out to prominent figures in media, entertainment, politics, the arts and the literary world, to hear their answers to these questions. This is drawn from a conversation with Dylan Ratigan, the host of MSNBC's The Dylan Ratigan Show and author of the forthcoming book Greedy Bastards.

    So the way my world works is I wake up and I check my BlackBerry, which is a uranium mine of information. The reason it's so rich with information is I have the benefit of all my legacy brokerage and financial research coming into it, I have all the current NBC clippings and headlines (from tsunami coverage to Casey Anthony to the White House) and I have my Twitter feed, which is probably the best monitor of what's breaking. For my first pass, I look at The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and all the major news organizations' Twitter feeds. On the second pass, I'm looking at the financial universe: the price of oil, currency pricings, etc. Then I'll log onto my computer and check the homepages of The Huffington Post, Politico, Zero Hedge, The New York Times and Financial Times and I'll read Naked Capitalism just to see what Yves Smith is saying about the banking system. I don't subscribe to any print media. I wouldn't read a newspaper now unless you put a gun to my head and even then I would really try to negotiate with you. It's not that I reject the content, it's that I reject the format.

    At 9:30 I begin a conference call with my staff who fill me in on the holes in my diet like the Casey Anthony trial or the he-said-she-said between Democrats and Republicans. I check Twitter on average once every 15 or 20 minutes. I like to tweet about things that provoke debate but I don't seek confrontation for confrontation's sake. Feel free to call me an asshole on Twitter. I won't respond. On the phone, I make calls to primary sources: actual people doing actual things like Senators, bankers or businessmen.

    That combination of news puts me in a situation where I can differentiate between what's actually happening and the blowhard news cycle of fear-monger manipulation and self-indulgent garbage. For instance, you hear a lot of talk on the debt ceiling about how disastrous it's going to be. The nice thing about having access to the financial markets is you can see how full of crap the political media is. If America was not going to pay its debts then the yield on the ten-year bond rate would be 14 percent. It's under 3 percent now. It's a joke. The whole thing's a charade. The debt limit itself is invented. It's like a really strict curfew your parents can and will remove at any time, which is not to say that America's debt is insignificant.

    Outside of the financial markets, there's very little penalty for having false information. Whereas in the financial universe, the punishment for false information is severe and irrevocable: you lose all your money. Good information matters and bad information is dangerous. So when a politician or political journalist asserts anything it's always a good idea to check the asset prices that would be affected. "Oh my God, we're going to default on our debt? That must mean America's ten-year bond must be out of whack!" Oh it's not? Then I guess they're full of fucking shit.

    One of my great frustrations with working in cable news is that the entire cable news infrastructure has been branded through partisan political lenses and so people assume that if you're on MSNBC you're left and if you're on Fox News you're right. There's no question that I'm painted as left because of the network I'm on. The branding precedes the talent in cable networking. Since when is it my job to be a Democrat or Republican? I recognize that both political parties are bought by six industries: energy, banking, health care, defense, agribusiness and communications.

    For books, I read autobiographies and spiritual literature like Ram Dass. The most recent autobiography I've read is Richard Branson's Losing My Virginity. It's not some glorification of how Branson became rich. Far from it. It's a revelation of his value system and his personal struggles. The bottom line on Ram Dass is the realization that there is no personal identity. I'm an anchor, I'm a journalist, I'm a father, I'm a brother. But the only thing that's important is infinite potential. Every human being's identity is your potential. Right now I'm an anchorman in New York who's a dude. But I'll still be Dylan Ratigan. So who are you? My answer is infinite potential. I think when you take that identity to your work it puts you in the best possible situation.

    Thursday 6/23/11

    Just found a GREAT new website, or at least what SEEMS to be a great new website, kind of in the style of Tim Ferris's "4 hour workweek", but more with a financial bent: sovereignman.com

    Bill Gross on Kudlow

    Bill Gross on Kudlow, was amazing. Guy really seems to know his stuff (he should!). His biggest point is that U.S. treasuries are a bad deal. The key quote from Bill:
    we've simply said the treasuries are the most overvalued bond in the universe. make a comparison. the average treasury yield, and this includes twos, fives, tens, 30s, all of them together, basically yield about 1.55%. in japan, all of their bonds in a dead economy, basically a lost decade, several decades economy in which no growth or inflation exists. their bond market yield is .8%. there's only a .7% difference with the united states in a non-vigorous type of economic differential.

    He had an interesting quote on overseas bonds, epecially Brazil which he says has a 6% interest rate (maybe this is why I heard Brazil is putting in capital controls???):

    going into developing markets such as brazil, where real interest rates of 6% and 7% as opposed to a negative .5% are offered, makes all the sense in the world to me. it does involve currency risk, does involve buying the dollar. but in any case it's a less repressive atmosphere in terms of interest rates, and it's a higher growth environment in terms of developing markets.

    He likes some of the "safe" stocks that are yielding good dividends:

    in terms of the stock market, yes. they're an amazing opportunity in real interest rate space. proctor, johnson and johnson. there's a huge gap, and a huge differential if an investor is willing to take a minor downgrade in terms of credit. A utility company, Southern, Duke.

    He thinks corporations will continue to do well for a while, but basically they are "at the top" as far as profit margins go:

    corporations are in the captain's seat. they've got cheap financing, cheap leverage, the ability to move from one country to another at will. corporations have basically done very well. they'll probably continue to do very well. but to expect their margins to expand at the expense of labor here in the united states, at the expense of laying off additional workers, you know, relative to their wages, real wages and their total, you know, nominal wage growth, i think is an unrealistic expectation. i think corporations basically are at the top in terms of profit margins. it doesn't mean that stocks are going to go down, it simply means that the catbird seat has basically been taken advantage of and the heyday is virtually in the past instead of the future

    Monday May 23 2011

    Another day, another dow more than 1% rise or fall! The wierdness in the markets continues.

    Really good article about the consequences of a Greek default at the guardian: What happens when Greece defaults. This is a must-read! I HOPE what he's talking about doesn't come to pass, but it sounds bad:

    - Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
    • The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
    • The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
    • To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets, Argentina-2002-style (when the Argentinian president had to flee by helicopter from the roof of the presidential palace to evade a mob of such depositors), the Greek government will declare a curfew, perhaps even general martial law.
    • Greece will redenominate all its debts into “New Drachmas” or whatever it calls the new currency (this is a classic ploy of countries defaulting)
    • The New Drachma will devalue by some 30-70 per cent (probably around 50 per cent, though perhaps more), effectively defaulting 0n 50 per cent or more of all Greek euro-denominated debts.
    • The Irish will, within a few days, walk away from the debts of its banking system.
    • The Portuguese government will wait to see whether there is chaos in Greece before deciding whether to default in turn.
    • A number of French and German banks will make sufficient losses that they no longer meet regulatory capital adequacy requirements.
    • The European Central Bank will become insolvent, given its very high exposure to Greek government debt, and to Greek banking sector and Irish banking sector debt.
    • The French and German governments will meet to decide whether (a) to recapitalise the ECB, or (b) to allow the ECB to print money to restore its solvency. (Because the ECB has relatively little foreign currency-denominated exposure, it could in principle print its way out, but this is forbidden by its founding charter. On the other hand, the EU Treaty explicitly, and in terms, forbids the form of bailouts used for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, but a little thing like their being blatantly illegal hasn’t prevented that from happening, so it’s not intrinsically obvious that its being illegal for the ECB to print its way out will prove much of a hurdle.)
    • They will recapitalise, and recapitalise their own banks, but declare an end to all bailouts.
    • There will be carnage in the market for Spanish banking sector bonds, as bondholders anticipate imposed debt-equity swaps.
    • This assumption will prove justified, as the Spaniards choose to over-ride the structure of current bond contracts in the Spanish banking sector, recapitalising a number of banks via debt-equity swaps.
    • Bondholders will take the Spanish Banking Sector to the European Court of Human Rights (and probably other courts, also), claiming violations of property rights. These cases won’t be heard for years. By the time they are finally heard, no-one will care.
    • Attention will turn to the British banks. Then we shall see…

    Monday April 25 2011

    Dow down 26.11 or 0.21% to 12,479.88. Nasdaq up 5.72 or 0.20% to 2,825.88. S&P down 2.13 or 0.16% to 1,335.25.

    Fast Money

    It's funny watching how exasperated these people get with the gold and silver prices rising, especially Tim "Greece is over" Seymour! They just can't get the big picture. And Joe Terrenova is pitiful just doing the same thing, jumping on the silver bandwagon, and acting like he was on it before!

    Seymour: "this isn't about the dollar at all". Amazing...! At least Grosso kind of gets it, kind of resigned when they talk about Bernake.

    Oh and today now that Netflix dropped 5% they are bringing up that guy (forget his name) that was massively short Netflix, and they were making fun of on the show...

    When you see these guys getting exasperated like this you know the shit is starting to hit the fan.. They just don't get it and they are trying to hang on to their other views.

    The big comment that really show's Tim's true colors is this: "the CME is raising margin requirements on Silver"... and then the big insite: "the world won't let this happen".. All his cards are based on his belief that governments CAN control things, they CAN solve the problem, they are NOT kicking the can down the road.

    Wednesday April 20 2011

    Dow up 186.79 or 1.52% to 12,453.54. Nasdaq up 57.54 or 2.10% to 2,802.51. S&P up 17.74 or 1.35% to 1,330.36.

    Wow, market up a lot on tech earnings. But GOLD BREAKS 1500. This is amazing to watch, it's just a very slow motion breakdown, just like 07, but slower. When the shit hits the fan (and it will soon) it's gonna be scary!

    Interesting: University of Texas bought a lot of gold, almost ONE BILLION DOLLARS WORTH. Smart!

    Monday April 18 2011

    Dow down 140.24 or 1.14% to 12,201.59. Nasdaq down 29.27 or 1.06% to 2,735.38. S&P down 14.54 or 1.10% to 1,305.14.

    Fast Money - My Prediction

    Before I even watch this, I want to predict what they are going to say. They will defend the U.S. debt problem and play down the problem, and try to say, it's not really a problem. I'm sure Tim "Greece is over" Seymour will say "the reality is, the economy is growing" or something like that... OK let's see...

    Wow, Timmy "Greece is over" Seymour said "the macro clouds in Europe should not be underestimated". Hmmm... not quite the same as his "Greece is over" statement a year ago?

    So I WAS wrong, they didn't defend it! Surprising...

    Tuesday April 12 2011

    Dow down 117.53 or 0.95% to 12,263.58. Nasdaq down 26.72 or 0.96% to 2,744.79. S&P down 10.3 or 0.78% to 1,314.16.

    Another example of the whole market moving together in tandem, just like in 07. One day everything is up 1 or 2%, the next day everything goes down 1 or 2%.

    I learned about an interesting different price earnings ratio today, Robert Shiller's modified P/E, known as CAPE (for Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) or P/E10. Here's a link to that article on Marketwatch: CAPE Ratio

    My question would be, if anyone can answer that, is where do you find a site that has the CAPE values so that you can do screens using it?

    Written by Mark Hulbert of that financial digest. (Good idea, back in the 90's, just order ALL the top financial newsletters and rate them! I wonder if it's too late to copy that...).

    Monday April 11 2011

    Dow up 1.06 or 0.01% to 12,381.11. Nasdaq down 8.9 or 0.32% to 2,771.51. S&P down 3.71 or 0.28% to 1,324.46.

    Fast Money: Apologists for Alcoa

    This is amazing watching this. Joe is saying that currency issues hurt their earnings: attributed part of it to a weaker dollar. AHHHHH... I need to get comments on here. I need someone to explain how a weaker dollar can hurt your EARNINGS (in dollars)....

    Thursday April 07 2011

    Dow down 17.26 or 0.14% to 12,409.49. Nasdaq down 3.68 or 0.13% to 2,796.14. S&P down 2.03 or 0.15% to 1,333.51.

    I like to make a note when you have an analyst or a guest that really "sounds" like he or she knows what he's talking about, and oil trader David Greenberg is one of those. "Throughout all the gulf wars... you never saw a spike like this". He thinks it's all due to electronic trading.

    Interesting point on leverage in the oil market: Joe asks, how much can you control with $50,000? He says in the old days you couldn't lever up much, but now, with 50,000 you could do hundreds of thousands of dollars intra day, maybe a million dollars. Sounds dangerous, diba?

    How to invest on that? Maybe it means oil stocks are a little high now. Wait for some dips to buy more. I've been big on integrated oil names and oil service companies. In the long run you can't lose on that. In the short run maybe it's better to wait a while. The next market plunge would be a good time to jump in!

    Wednesday April 06 2011

    Dow up 32.85 or 0.27% to 12,426.75. Nasdaq up 8.63 or 0.31% to 2,799.82. S&P up 2.91 or 0.22% to 1,335.54.

    Watching Fast Money, it's just amazing how these people can just ignore the big picture. Gold hits a new all time high, Portugal asks for a bailout, and they are all concentrating on the short-term increase in stocks! Amazing!!!

    Zac Carabel is the most amazing. In response to Portugal, because the futures didn't sell off, "is an indication that we have a lot of room to go from here". Amazing... They are just not getting what's happening in slow motion.

    Then Melissa's comment that "is it a surprise in any shape or form that Portugal has asked for a bailout?" !!! As if, just because it was expected, it's not important!

    The guy they have who is shorting Netfix, Len Brecken of Brecken Capital. He looked TERRIBLE on TV, can't seem to get the words out, I guess he doesn't have the "gift of gab". (Like Joe Terranova who can bullshit about anything and sound like he knows something). However he has a good point about Netflix, it would be good to learn more. (I'd never invest in Netflix ANYWAY, but it speaks to leverage and debt). Apparently, he says, Netflix has more than 1.6 billion of "off balance sheet" debt that it's using to expand into the streaming content business, which he says can never be paid back... Hmmmm "can never be paid back" where have I heard that before?


    Tuesday April 05 2011

    Dow down 6.13 or 0.05% to 12,393.90. Nasdaq up 2 or 0.07% to 2,791.19. S&P down 0.24 or 0.02% to 1,332.63.

    Gold hits new record of 1456.70! Silver to 39.28. Looks like silver will break 40 soon!

    These Fast Money people are unbelievable. Gold hits a new record and all of a sudden they have been "talking about this" for so long. Silver also. At least Karen is consistent, she doesn't like gold, doesn't understand gold, and sticks with her story. Joe Terranova give one of the most inane quotes I've heard: "I think the question is not about gold, not about silver, we know the direction of those, they are going higher and higher". So we know the direction of those. If so, why the hell would you buy anything else???? If you KNOW the direction, if WE know the direction, we can all be rich! If you KNOW the direction, why do you own anything else, why not sell all of your other holdings and buy gold exlusively? Of course we don't know the direction, there could be huge corrections at any moment.

    I give commenatators like this a break though, just like football commentators. A lot of people say about football commentators, "that was so stupid", but just think, they have to talk ALL THE TIME, NON STOP for the whole game! They have to say SOMETHING. So they end up saying something stupid. (Like "we know the direction of those"...!)


    Monday April 04 2011

    Dow up 23.31 or 0.19% to 12,400.03. Nasdaq down 0.41 or 0.01% to 2,789.19. S&P up 0.46 or 0.03% to 1,332.87.

    Geithner wrote a scary letter to congress today. Here is an excerpt:

    "The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations. If Congress does not act by May 16, I will take all measures available to me to give Congress additional time to act and to protect the creditworthiness of the country... Defaulting on legal obligations of the United States would lead to sharply higher interest rates and borrowing costs, declining home values and reduced retirement savings for Americans. Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover.
    And then this:
    Nor is it possible to avoid raising the debt limit by cutting spending or raising taxes. Because of the magnitude of past commitments by Congress, immediate cuts in spending or tax increases cannot make the necessary cash available.

    The key phrase is: cannot make the neccessary cash available.

    Woah man... That's scary... Either we keep borrowing or we can't pay. Wow... It sounds like a family trying to scrape together cash to live. Or a coke addict.... "I need cash man... cutting my spending or working more cannot make the neccessary cash available to feed my habit..."

    Fast Money - Joe Lavorgna

    They have Joe Lavorgna on fast money. They guy seems to always be over-optimistic, but he also seems to know a lot about what's going on. This is the ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION: will there be a QE3 or not???. I want to change my previous forecast. I think now that they WILL stop the QE, but just for a while. Then, the panic will set in. Something will happen. I don't know what. Maybe stocks tank. Maybe Greece/Portugal/Ireland. Whatever, soon after QE2 is stopped in June, then QE3 will start. I hereby declare...! I'd say... hmmm.. within 2 months.

    But anyway back to Joe Lavorgna. He thinks the fed will tighten in December... 25 bps. Alas, no way... No way that's gonna happen. Karen: will it put an end to the bull market? Joe: for bonds yes, but for stocks no. (I must disagree again). Well Joe really didn't say much, but at least he has an actual prediction we can rate.

    John Stephenson First Asset Mgmt, predicts silver hits 45 by the end of the summer and 65 an ounce by the end of the year. Hmmm seems a little optimistic, but I wouldn't doubt it. Timmy thinks silver sounds like a bubble... Hehehe I wouldn't put too much stock in what Timmy "Greece is over" Seymour says about silver!

    Kudlow

    Nunes from Northwest Asset Management on there had another scary comment. He has retail investor clients: "people are very scared after seeing their portfolios go down 50% twice in the last nine years". But here is the scary part: "Clients are buying, because we have some good risk controls built into our system so we don't ride the next bear market all the way down". The scary part of this is: how many other investment houses have these kind of "risk controls"built in? Can you say flash crash? We are on the edge of the abyss, all it takes is one little push and everyone will run for the exits. My other question for Nunes would be, "did your clients ride the LAST bear market all the way down???" Hehehe....

    Other Thoughts

    By the way, the reason I sarcastically call Fast Money's Timmy "Greece is Over" Seymour is this annoying thing where so many commentators think that because the government bails someout out (essentially kicking the can down the road), the problem is solved. Over. Fini. The thing is, the problem is NOT solved. Just delayed. As we can see by the "Greece is over" comment a year ago. A year later, is the Greece problem solved? Or is it spreading?


    Thursday March 31 2011

    Dow down 30.88 or 0.25% to 12,319.73. Nasdaq up 4.28 or 0.15% to 2,781.07. S&P down 2.43 or 0.18% to 1,325.83.

    Timmy on Fast Money says today that the ZIRP will continue for as far as the eye can see. He's right about that, it WILL continue, UNTIL we are forced to discontinue it by the market...

    Awesome, they had Peter Schiff on today and he said basically the same thing I said above: the fed is NOT going to stop the QEx. He says "The fed is buying 70% of the treasuries". Is that true? He says the CEO of walmart has warned americans to brace for serious inflation, broad-based price increases starting in June. Here is the article Peter Schiff is referring to:
     WalMart CEO predicts massive inflation

    Here is the meat of the article:

    U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday.

    The world's largest retailer is working with suppliers to minimize the effect of cost increases and believes its low-cost business model will position it better than its competitors.

    Still, inflation is "going to be serious," Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY's editorial board. "We're seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate."

    Along with steep increases in raw material costs, John Long, a retail strategist at Kurt Salmon, says labor costs in China and fuel costs for transportation are weighing heavily on retailers. He predicts prices will start increasing at all retailers in June.


    Wednesday March 30 2011

    Dow up 71.6 or 0.58% to 12,350.61. Nasdaq up 19.9 or 0.72% to 2,776.79. S&P up 8.82 or 0.67% to 1,328.26.

    Timmy on Fast Money continues to say the consumer is not dead, and now it's "Risk On". I wonder what he will say in June when QE2 ends?????

    The same guy who said "GREECE IS OVER" in April of 2010, just doesn't get the big picture. Governments inject massive money to kick a problem down the road, and he immediately thinks "it's over: problem solved". I think he is so involved in looking at day-to-day stats and day-to-day changes, he's so immersed in it, he can't step back and see the overall picture: he can't see how we are on a slow-motion ride to hell right now.


    Monday March 28 2011

    Dow down 22.71 or 0.19% to 12,197.88. Nasdaq down 12.38 or 0.45% to 2,730.68. S&P down 3.61 or 0.27% to 1,310.19.

    I like Dennis Gartman, but I think he's SOOOO WRONG now... He's saying there is virtually ZERO chance of QE3... "The odds of a QE3 are negligible at best, and bordering on zero". In my opinion, there is NO way that there's not going to be a QE3... (sorry, double-negative...). Also he thinks the fed will tighten interest rates soon. I'm pretty sure, NO WAY THAT'S GONNA HAPPEN SOON...

    Actually, there IS a way there would not be a QE3: if inflation starts to become too noticeable, too painful. That might stop them. I think that's a way down the road though.


    Monday March 7 2011

    Dow down 79.85 or .66% to 12090.03. S&P down 11.02 or .83% to 1310.13. Nasdaq down 39.04 or 1.4% to 2745.63.

    On Fast Money, Beaks had what sounds like a good play. If I had some money, I might try this! The play is PGH: Pengrowth Energy Trust. The play is, the stock seems to be 70-some percent correlated with the price of oil, and it pays a 6% dividend! Beaks is saying this is a good 6 to 12 month play. Sounds like a good one! The current price is 13.09.


    Sunday March 6 2011

    Moved the web hosting service today to dreamhost.com, which I highly recommend!

    I just saw a video blog by Peter Schiff, and the one thing that stood out was that the government spent ONE TRILLION DOLLARS last month. I was like, wait, that can't be right! Here is the video:

    Peter Schiff One Trillion

    I could NOT beleive that... So I did a search and found the confirmation here:

    CbsNews.com

    Now wait a minute... Can someone explain this, because I don't remember one trillion worth of treasury bond sales in February.


    Tuesday February 22 2011

    Market is crashing because of Libya and the middle east. Dow down 178.46 or 1.44%, Nasdaq down 77.53 or 2.74%, S&P down 27.57 or 2.05%.

    Interesting guy on Kudlow: Dan Dicker, independent oil trader. Very honest, REALLY sounds like he knows what he's talking about. Dicker recommends Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Baker Huges (BHI), and Weatherford Intl. (WFT)


    Tuesday August 3 2010

    OK you have GOT to see that interview on Kudlow with David Stockman. MAN! That dude is seriously worried. Here is the guy that one of the architects of the Reagan tax cuts, saying we need to RAISE taxes! The one thing he misses is that raising taxes won't help, the idiots in Washington will just spend/steal it plus more.

    Maybe you can get that interview here: http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlows-money-politics

    The thing is, my thought is, maybe David Stockman is too old! OK so he's freaked out


    Monday June 7 2010

    Down down 115.48 or 1.16%, S&P down 14.41 or 1.35%, Nasdaq down 45.27 or 2.04%.

    Cool! Dennis Gartman is on the desk. I like him. Hey he even graduated from my local area, Akron U! (Where my daughter is starting college next year!).

    Today it was a late day slide. Zerohedge says it's something to do with rolling contracts???? (Can anyone explain what that is?).

    Finerman bought Citi. That might be pretty smart at $3.65... Hope it goes up to 5 before the crash and then sell out...

    Chris Mutascio Stifel Nicolaus banking analyst: pretty good ideas. FASB talking about mark-to-market which would ensure financial crisis "as far as the eye can see". Bank of America "stupid cheap": 5 or 6 times normalized earnings, even with derivatives bill 7 times earnings. Also mentions Wells Fargo, PNC and US Bank corp. Next 2 or 3 years those are very cheap stocks. I guess maybe US Bank would be something you could try. I don't think I'd like to try it...


    Friday June 4 2010

    Wow. Dow down 323 points or 3.15%, S&P down 37.95 or 3.44%, Nasdaq down 83.86 or 3.64%.

    Wild day. I would say it has more to do with Europe than with the jobs report. You know, Hungary.. I think everyone is starting to figure out that governments worldwide can't keep up the borrow/spend and we are about to hit the wall... I guess everyone is starting to figure out that there is NO recovery...


    Friday May 21 2010

    Down WAS down 3% on a wild day, ends up to close down just 22.82 or .23%, S&P up .04% to 1074.03, Nasdaq down .12% to 2210.95. John Tabacco of locatestock.com a service for short-sellers. Earlier this month said people aren't covering their shorts, doubling down and shorting more, expecting a move to the thousands in the down side. For today, says he didn't see a lot of short covering at the end of the day.

    As we watch the slow-motion worldwide crash continue, let's look at Fast Money today. These guys are amazing, on the down day yesterday the world was falling apart, today things are fine. Their horizon is less than 24 hours.


    Friday May 21 2010

    Down up 125.38 or 1.25% to 10,193.39. S&P up 16.1 or 1.5% to 1087.69. Strange day, I think the rise is due to short covering. Intersting we have BK (Brian Kelly) on Fast Money, my FAVORITE guy on there, and he's on the DESK! Awesome! Must be due to popular demand.

    Interesting debate between BK and and Jon Najarian. Jon says the consumers based on what he saw in Europe and NYC is that consumers are fine (can't get into restaurants). Jon: the only problem is in Greece. BK: it's not just Greece (of course!), it affects France, Germany, Spain, all the rest. Jon: they will increase exports. BK: to where, China?. Jon: doesn't believe the econonies in Europe that are doing well will slow down. Euro will have a short covering rally and continue to decline. Lower euro will help Germany and the rest. BK: it affects capX, if managers are nervous about all this volitility, will they build that new plant or make that investment? Melissa: what's the trade. BK: short the rallies.

    Trade off the short in the Euro: RSX. Russia something. Also a play on oil.

    Grasso: short the consumer names, because everyone is going to be paying higher taxes.

    Grasso: the stocks that are oversold is energy. He's probably right but I have a better idea. Let me say all my ideas have worked out great so far. For example, in summer of 07 I sold ALL my stocks and went to 100% gold. Was I right???? YES. OK here's the idea. I got it from a great blog, Of Two Minds blog, you can read this page here:
    http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay10/head-fake05-10.html

    The premise is, due to the coming deflationary economic collapse, we'll see oil go down to, say, $25 a barrel by around 2011 - 2012. (I like how he gives pretty specific dates!). Then around 2013 we'll hit peak oil, supply will drop below demand, and we'll see the price spike up to $150 per barrel. Then by 2015 we'll see $300/barrel oil. Pretty good prediction! I'd take it with a grain of salt, but I think you CAN'T LOSE on this one. No matter how you look at it, in just about every future scenario, oil is going up. No two ways about it. So I think the play is to wait and see how the deflation plays out. Try to pick the bottom of it. Of course the deflation is going to turn into massive INFLATION once the governments panic and try to monetize their way out of the debt. So even if we don't hit peak oil, you still have a winner with your oil company investments, because oil will be a hedge against inflation.

    So here's the plan. Wait until next year, or until it looks like the collapse is just about peaked, there's blood in the streets, the oil price has dropped a LOT (not neccessarily $25, but something a lot lower). Then jump in. Get some nice safe US companies like CVX, and maybe some foreign ones like Petrobras. That's it. I GUARANTEE this will work!

    Doug Kass: he turned bullish! This guy is pretty smart so I wouldn't discount it. "Today the hardest trade is to buy at 1080". (1) China will have softer landing than expected. (2) Financial regulation a lot of the less onorus amendments (3) Germans showed they had guts this morning (4) 9:15 & 9:30 S&P futures went from down 7 to down 19, fear of another flash crash, afternoon market had every reason to go down, but market hung in. BK to Kass: global slowdown in GDP, where is the growth going to come from? Kass: shorting retail, give me a break the RTH was 105.5 two weeks ago, it's 96 now you want to short them down 9??? The answer: the domestic expansion is alive and well. I know it's different this time. But he thinks we could have a self-sustaining domestic expansion. What about jobless. Kass: you are wrong. I've been so negative, you are not counting the good jobs reading last Friday. Kass trade: finanancials, E-trade, mortage insurers. Crazy man. I wouldn't try that!

    Jon Najarian: consumer is NOT dead. (Wrong!)

    Guest: Michael Block, Phoenix Partners. Says you should buy "made in the USA". Companies that generate their revenues almost or fully exclusively in the US. Recommendations: US retail. Most of money in US. He recommends Finish Line, 100% in US, no debt! (A good thing! Maybe that one might be worth looking at). Urban. 90% US.

    I DISAGREE WITH THE WHOLE CONSUMER RETAIL THINK. HE MIGHT BE RIGHT BUT WAY TOO RISKY.


    Tuesday, April 27, 2010

    DOW down 114 to 10511 or 1.08%, S&P down 16.14 or 1.42% to 1121, and Nasdaq down 37 to 2317 or 1.57%

    Not surprisingly, This time, after the "1 trillion" dollar bailout of Europe, Timmy on fast money didn't say "Greece is Over!" again!


    Tuesday, April 27, 2010

    GREEECE DEBT DOWNGRADED TO "JUNK". Stock market plunges. I guess Timmy on Fast Money was not TOTALLY right when he said "Greece is over!"?


    Tuesday, April 20, 2010

    DOW up 25 or .23% to 11,117.06, S&P up 9.65 or .81% to 1207

    Fast money: fawning over Apple. Waste of time to watch. Who cares about apple? The most important thing are the MACRO economic things going on right now...

    One thing, I wish I had the date, was when Tim on Fast Money said Greece is OVER. Uh... that one is a good quote that will go down in Fast Money history: "Greece is over". Don't think so Timmy!!!


    Tuesday, Feb 09, 2010

    FAST MONEY Noted commodities analyst David Threlkeld President Resolved Inc. Interesting theory, says that copper will fall to $1 a pound. Could happen this year. Says China has stockpiled 2 million tons of copper: based on how much they have used/produced/imported. Last year copper consumption in China was 5 million tons, production was 4 million tons, and imports were 3 million tons, = 2 million tons left over. Most of the Fast Money people are smirking at him.

    Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010

    Dow down 2.57 or .03% to 10,194.29, S&P down 4.61 or .42% to 1092.17 Josh Rosner Graham Fisher & co. seems to be in the know about the New York Fed and Geithner's involvment in hiding information about AIG. The blurb said he was one of the early warner's about the GSE's. House panel hearing on AIG bailout.

    Friday, Jan 15, 2010

    Dow down 216.90 or 2.09% to 10,172.98. S&P down 24.72 or 2.21% to 1091.76

    FAST MONEY Well I think the traders are finally starting to get the idea that there isn't going to be any recover. Well MAYBE. Guy has thought the market was irrationally high for the last few months, but he says "I've been wrong". I think the rest of them are going to learn the hard way, especially Pete Najarian!

    If we get a nice massive pullback in the market in the next few weeks, it might be a good time to buy some dividend-paying oil stocks.


    Tuesday Dec 15, 2009

    FAST MONEY Jim Chanos, legendary short seller, now is short on China. Thinks GDP is massively overstated. Interesting comment: "Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses. There's no bigger credit excess right now than china". Kinekos founded in 1985, was shorting Enron in 2000.

    Tuesday Dec 1 2009

    Intersting guy Nicholas Heymann (I like the name. Hey man!) analyst at Sterne Agee on CNBC. SEEMS to have a clue what he's talking about. Majority of power systems will be installed in emerging markets. In developed markets its a whole different game, don't sell them together bundled, they already have the wires. Top pick: Cooper Industries. Huge increase in earnings next year.

    Friday Nov 27 2009

    Interesting on Glenn Beck: Damon Vickers managing director of Nine Points Capital.

    Friday Oct 20 2009

    Kudlow: Believes fed will be forced to jack up interest rates to 7% by next year: John Lekas president of Leader Capital Corp. I found some interviews for him, he seems to have it all together:
    John Lekas Interview

    Lekas is primarily talking about U.S. dollar problems on Kudlow today.


    Thursday May 21 2009

    Fast Money: Veracruz founder Steve Cortes. Good comments. Says "Short America". Relever an economy that is already in touble because it's already too levered. Trades: last 2 months. Bond market has already downgraded u.s. debt. From March 18 we are up almost 1% on US debt. Trade: long resource names: XLE, short the consumer.

    Monday April 6 2009

    I've had the idea for about a YEAR to double-short the DOW or the S&P. Here is the thesis: if the GENERAL DIRECTION is **DOWN**, and if things are going UP and DOWN like crazy, it's a no-lose proposition: double-short whenever it goes up 1% or more (e.g. the DXD to double-short the DOW), and sell the DXD whenever it goes back down 1% or more. It's like taking candy from a baby!

    Well after a year of thinking about that I finally tried it. May be too late now! But anyway worked out OK, bought the DXD on Thursday, the DOW went up a little on Friday, then back down, -112 or so at noon today. So I sell it and make a nice little 2% profit in 3 days.

    The BIG question is this: is the general direction down?

    BUT... this play SHOULD work if the general direction is sideways. So I think it still works. Makes me a lot more nervous when I have actualy money invested. I'll try again this week if we get a nice big surge upwards on some sort of nonsense news on corporate profits... E.g. profits down 28% when they expected a 35% drop, so it shoots up!

    But ANYWAY... good guest on Fast Money: FBR capital management Paul Miller. (FBR = Freedom Billings Ramsey). HE says, what people are missing is that the banks could be getting 3 or 4% losses NEXT year. They don't have enough capital to make it through. Mayo predicts 3 1/2 % losses this year alone, but Paul is loking at 3 1/2 to 4% loses NEXT year, these banks only have 2 1/2 % capital, maybe 2% pre tax provision, only 1 to 1 1/2% reserves. "The wholes in these balance sheets are just too big". He says a good SHORT right now is Wells Fargo!! Wow... That would take a lot of guts to try... But I bet it works...


    Wednesday March 25 2009

    OHHH MYYY GAWD.... The treasury bill collapse has started... Actually it started a few days ago but I was too lazy to make a post. And I can't remember what it was I read or when I read it...

    But ANYWAY... OH... Britain had a failed bond auction... And the U.S. had a hard time... HUGE NEWS..

    Kudlow is trying to paper over it...

    Here is where we find out Mish is wrong and Schiff is right... Or do we?

    Just a side note Timmy on fast money says we'll have .. what did he say? 10% inflation by next year...

    MISH!!!! MISH!!!! YOU ARE GONNA BE SHOWED WRONG!!!


    Monday March 23 2009

    DOW up 6.84% to 7775, S&P up 7.08% to 822, Nasdaq up 6.76%.
    Fast Money: These people are unbelievable! The market is up ONE DAY and these people are ALL OVER IT, saying S&P is going to hit 900, saying it's not too late to get in, ARE THEY CRAZY? DO THEY JUST LOOK AT THINGS ONE DAY AT A TIME?

    Terrenova says hedge funds are coming in now. Says may hit 900 but test back down to the 740 level.


    Monday March 9 2009

    Some pretty good ideas from Najarian and the other guy on fast money: the oil ENGINEERING stocks. Najarian: Exxon spending 150 billion of the next 5 years and Petrobras spending 174 billion over the next 4 or 5 years, not just oil service, but engineering names: FLUOR, Foster Wheeler. Tim also likes RIG. Najarian says cut these enginering firms earnings in half and their P/E's are still in the single digits! McDermot.

    Tuesday Feb 17 2009

    Another guru "made some pocket change last week shorting Lloyds" the guy that made billions shorting sub-prime: John Paulson: ups stake in Rohm & Haas, got longer Wells Fargo BoA in 4th quarter...

    Tuesday Feb 10 2009

    This is the day of the massive drop in stocks after Geithner's terrible non-detailed announcement.

    Good guy on Kudlow: Chris Meir Columbia Business School seems to know what he's talking about in the area of banks and what these strange assets are worth..

    I have an idea. Why not just SPLIT these assets into EACH INDIVIDUAL MORTGAGE. Then sell each individual mortgage separately. Why not? The mortgages that are held by people paying their bills each month would probably be worth a lot! And if you get the mortgage of the people NOT paying the bills, you get the house!


    Wednesday, Jan 28 2009

    Had CEO of Wells Fargo Howard Atkins Fast Money: Paul Miller FBR capital markets, seems to know what he's talking about on banks. Says sell on the strenght. Freedom Billings & Ramsey? Thinks most banks are insolvent. When the details of Obama plan comes out everyone will be disappointed. Don't know what happens to shareholders. What type of dilution?

    Wednesday, Jan 21 2009

    Interesting. Seems like VERY good analyst on Microsoft: Heather Bellini from UBS. She really sounds like she know's what she's talking about. Suggests that Microsoft is a good trading buy today because although they will miss on earnings, they have lots of room to cut on costs!


    Monday Dec 29, 2008

    Najarian interesting pick: LINE Linn Energy. Good writeup in Barons. A lot of call options.


    Tuesday Dec 16, 2008

    Fast Money: they had a guest, Doug Cliggott of Dover Management. Seemed like someone that knows what's going on! He says look at Reported Net Income of companies, NOT Operating income: he calls it "Mulligan Golf". Kudlow:

    The Bond Report with Rick Santelli at the CME group. Treasury not dumb enough to not inflate their way out of the biggest growing balance sheet that will come off reserves and velocity us into inflation.

    Peter Schiff's take on inflation/deflation: commodity and consumer prices coming down is temporary. The inflationary pressures are building, by next year you are going to see commodity going through the roof again, consumer prices going up, and inflation genie so far out of the bottle there will be no way the fed can get it back again.

    Oh man Peter Schiff was great on Kudlow tonight! Schiff is predicting massive inflation by next year (I think he said). Wayne Angel and the other former Fed chairmain both say the Fed move to move rates to zero was great. Schiff: "We can just print prosperity! That's fantastic! Noone needs to work anymore. Why don't we share this invention with the rest of the world?" AWESOME quote!


    Tuesday Dec 9, 2008

    Dennis Gartman on Fast Money: invest in natural gas trusts. Pays you monthly. Sounds like a good idea! SSL, Pretrobras


    Monday Dec 1, 2008

    Kudlow: housing guy (what's his name) is looking for 600 on the S&P. Bottom of 600 and earnings of $40 (?)

    Thursday, November 20, 2008


    Monday, November 17, 2008

    Alocoa down another 10%. Guy thinks it might be a good bet at this level.


    Thursday November 13, 2008

    FAST MONEY

    Carter Worth: Aloca down 80%, at 45 ---> 9, capitulation, 80% decline. By dropping to 9, same level as 91, 92, last major recession. Get long.


    Wednesday November 12, 2008


    Thursday July 31, 2008

    DOW down 206 or 1.8%, NASDAQ down .18%, S&P down 1.31%.

    M, July 29, 2008

    MAN it's massive up and downs! DOW down 240 yesterday and up 266 today! DOW up 2.39%, Nasdaq up 2.45%, S&P up 2.33%. All because Merrill Lynch sold it's CDO's for 22 cents on the dollar. Is it ALL their bad stuff?

    Monday, July 28, 2008

    Markets got crushed today, DOW down 240 or -2.1%, NASDAQ down 2%, S&P down 1.86% Mackey: Either the sun will explode or the selling will end it's just a matter of what comes first... Dylan: big massive profits coming in for the oil companies, there will be a lot of hootin' and hollerin' Najarian: point is, the integrated companies may be a good time to sell because their production numbers are not increasing. The ones to go to are oil services, Haliburton, Schumberger, etc. Karen likes oil services Transocian ticker RIG. Merril Lynch to raise 8.5 billion by selling stock. Karen: a 1/3 dilution, incredible! 30 billion on housing bonds, marked it to 6.7 billion or 80% reduction. Gasparino: Doug Cass put out a note this morning to sell Merrill due to writedowns... Hmmm does Doug Cass know something we don't know? IS THIS PANIC DAY???? Dylan: 20% dilution. Reduces CDO exposure by 11 billion. Pete: SKF which is double what the financials go down, he thinks it WILL be performing tomorrow! Whale: John Paulson. Buying financials?

    Tuesday, July 22, 2008

    DOW up 135.16 or 1.18%, S&P up 1.35%, Nasdaq up 1.07%.

    Friday, July 18, 2008

    DOW up 50 or .44%, S&P flat, Nasdaq down 1.3%!

    Oil plunges...


    Wednesday, July 16, 2008

    DOW up 276 or 2.5% !!!! S&P up 2.5% also. Nasdaq up 3.1%. WOW! What a day for stocks! Could it be that all the problems are over, now that Wells Fargo has made a slightly better profit than expected! YES.... *NOT*.....

    But, if the Fed / Congress can keep Freddie / Fannie alive WITHOUT taking them over, by simply buying stock and opening up the window... could that solve it? Yes the taxpayers have to chip in 250 billion or so, but...


    Tuesday, July 15, 2008

    I thought today would be the day total panic set in. I was wrong... The DOW down 200, then back up to +45, then back down to finish at -95 or -.84%. S&P down 1.1%, Nasdaq up .13%.

    WOW! What a day. Oil plunges by 10 bucks, the market doesn't beleive Paulson can do what's needed for Freddie/Fannie. DOW closes down below 11,000 for the first time since 2006. S&P wiping out all it's gains since 2005.

    FAST MONEY: Yep, there's the pavement, that's how you know you're in NYC's times square! MACKEY: If you want to feel good, buy a puppy and call your grandma! Joe Terrenova on oil trades: Steve: Why buy stocks, when the government is going to protect the debt, but not the stocks??? Bear Stearns: equity got $10, debt holders remained whole.

    Drug stock rally continues! Because they are defensive? Rotation out of other stocks. Kris Jener M.D. Gilead Sciences solid: HIV medicine. Guy Adami: they dominate in HIV, growing into their valuation, the street is just catching up. Another: Baxter: another steady eddie BAX. Abbot Labs? He owns it, not as highly rated as BAX in his mind. Growth relative with BAX is better.

    KUDLOW Stephan Abrams: Bernake in effect said "I can't do a damn thing, I'm just trying to keep the financial system in one piece". Will require the most massive fiscal and monetary stimulus that we've seen since the 1930's. Fannie and Freddie: just some tools. Needs a trillion dollar fiscal deficit to solve this problem. Gold is going up and dollar is going down.

    Kudlow: blah blah blah different "good" statistics.

    CRAMER Touting the new enforcement of not allowing naked shorts. Now wind power is his pick because of another government bill. I don't invest on anything based on a government bill. I prefer to invest in a company that can produce something cool that people will pay for, without being forced to pay for it. They want to buy it, and they give up their hard-earned (and in many cases HARD-EARNED) money because they want it.

    Owens Corning. Makes the material for blades. Down 20%. Seems intersting!


    Monday, July 14, 2008

    DOW down 45 (.41%) after an early morning rally on the fed bailout promises for Freddie/Fannie. Nasdaq down 1.17% S&P down .5%.

    KUDLOW: oh my gawd... Kudlow is trumpeting a Barrons article that says the housing problems are bottoming!!! I just read an article on bigpicture.typepad.com about that... Barry Ritholtz had a good analysis on the article...


    Friday, July 11, 2008

    HUGE day... DOW down 128 or 1.1%, S&P down 1.1%, nasdaq down .8% IT'S FANNIE AND FREDDIE DAY...

    Fast Money: after hours: the fed says Reuters story that they will give the discount window to Fannie/Freddie is NOT TRUE!!! Fannie May says they raised 7.4 billion in May, they've never had more surplus capital. Volume on Fannie / Freddie unprecedented. Adami: has no clue. (Even though he thought it was a buy yesterday "with a tight stop").

    Mackey: "capitulation is like pornography. you can't define it but you know it when you see it. and we haven't seen it yet". (talking about fannie/freddie) Narjaian: be short on foreign banks and long on US banks... Adami: cheasapeak energy

    Matthew Simmons Chairman Simmons & Co.: oil is going to go WAY higher. Simmons think a LOT of people think oil prices are coming down, and they are shorting the oil contract. but they are wrong. "We are out of drilling rigs". Opening the shelf won't have a difference for a for a decade or two. "If we have a shortage, we'll have a run on the banks so fast your eyse will spin. If we run out of usable oil or gasoline we'll be out of food" (!!!)

    He sounds like he want's to go back to living in villages... No more commuting... Seems more like someone with a communist agenda wouldn't take what he's saying seriously... Probable scenario: keep dropping our inventories

    KUDLOW "Enough already. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not going down!" HUH??? I guess not... taxpayers will have to pay. Actually I think this is a good idea. Inflate the currency like crazy and all our debt is gone... Yes, a $1 million dollar hamburger will be a problem, but I think with credit cards and such, we won't need to use currency to heat our houses....

    Pento: he's long on GOLD and the Austrailian dollar. Feels the dollar will break it's record low in the next few weeks.


    Thursday, July 10, 2008

    Dow up 82 .73%, S&P Flat, Nasdaq up 1%

    Fast money

    Najarian: Wachovia, keep your eye on it. 10% dividend (for a good reason). XLF pricing in a 25% move either direction THIS MONTH.

    Adami: buy Lehman, again, with a tight stop. You see 21 before you see 16.


    Tuesday, July 8, 2008

    DOW up 152 1.36% S&P up 1.7% Nasdaq up 2.3%

    Is it a bottom? Byon Wien: thinks we are in a bottoming area (!!!!). And he was a bear. By the end of the year the market will be performing more strongly... WHAT????

    David Malpass: president of something... used to be from Bear Stearns..

    Quentin Hardy: not a bottom (obviously)...

    Kudlow: are we bottoming? I think so! (come on dude... get a grip!)


    Monday, July 7, 2008

    The DOW down 57 .5%, S&P down .84%, Nasdaq flat. Mackey: only a $40 drop in the price of oil would have an effect.

    Najarian: the problem is not oil, it's Fanny & Freddie

    Adami: you haven't seen the worst yet in Lehman stock. Day trader, with tight stop, you might want to play Fanny / Freddie.

    Karen: more bad news for Fannie/Freddie RADIAN: the mortgage insurers. If these guys go under, which it appears they will. Najarian: Analy Capital: 40,000 agressive puts, looking for a pullback.

    Mackey: Potash 10 year chart looks like a bubble. You can buy now on the pullback with a stop at 195 or so.

    Kudlow & Company


    Sunday, July 6, 2008

    Just a side note on the olympics. These Beging olympics are going to be HUGE!! I mean, politcally and everything. BUT I'm just watching the trials for the female pole vaulting... do their outfits have to be so SKIMPY??? I mean, sure they are athletes in top condition, so their bodies look great, but do we really need the little tiny shorts? Where their butt is hanging out about half the time? I mean, sure it's great to watch (for me...) but if I'm a jumper I'd say NO I don't need to wear this outfit..! Anywey just a thought...

    Thursday July 3, 2008

    Dow up 73 points .65%, S&P up .11%, Nasdaq down .27%.

    Fast Money: Inflation special. Najarian: it's not as much oil, it's the financials, the housing problems, the credit crisis. Guy: steel is a global demand story. Adami owns NUE. Joe: Potash, agrium. Najarian: 10% pullback Monsanto, Potash - that's the time to get in. Dennis Gartman: Gold? Careful on gold, the trend is up, have to be careful. Gold goes up as the dollar gets week. Gold $930 or so, the trend is upward, be a buyer if you get a $10 to $15 break. Gold stocks beaten up, you could own: Barack, Agnico Eagle. Owning commodities without using futures, ETFs: JJG, DBA Copper: trend is up. He uses copper futures. For public, Freeport Macmaran is the way to go. Fast Money Farmer, original air 6/6/08, Rojer Neshem, farmer from North Dakota. Corn crop is not going to catch up: we'll go through 7 in corn. He sold his Agrium, wait for a pullback and get more. Same thing with Monsanto. If your crop is worth more money, it's easier to decide to invest in fungicides and herbicides. Bill Doyle CEO of potash, original air 2/11/08. In Feb of 08 POT was $158, now it's $210.. He says since he was here 6 months ago, stock has doubled... Lets see... 6 months puts us about in August 07? Yep it was $88 then, pretty much half as much... Original air 5/28, General Barry Mcaffry. Mike Wilson CEO Agrium, original air 6/18/08. Agrium is selling "increased yield". Could fertilizer go as high as $1,000 a ton? Wilson: basically, yes.

    Rick Santelli original air 5/16/08.

    Guy: trades that mirror the 70's. McDonalds. Ford: retro play. Could make a 9.5 / 10 handle. Final trade, inflation trade: Nat gas. Guy: LMT. Karen: supermarkets: KR, Kroger. Short whole foods. Narjarian: McDonalds, Burger King.


    Wednesday, July 2, 2008

    Oh man, DOW down 166 or 1.46%, S&P down 1.8%, NASDAQ down 2.3% Kudlow grasping at straws, business factory orders were very strong!!!! Jason Trennert: global inflation problem. The French will be tightening tommorrow. Pento: a strong economy requires a strong currency. Cramer: yet again, not on his dirty linoleum floor... Another nightmarish day... Guest: aligned technologies. 2 X revenue. Has book about buffet.

    Cramer: not on his linoleum floor! Extremely negative Merill Lynch call on General Motors. Global slowdown. Selloff is not done. Let go of some of our huge winners: in oil etc. Are you crazy? Keep your oil stocks! Pedatrix PDX was hammered. Down a lot. Cramer thinks it might be a good buy. Grows earnings at 13%.


    Tuesday, July 1, 2008

    Cramer: a rally. (You call that a rally???????). Cramer still on the "medicare boondoggle" "I mean.. the Medicare bill!". MDRX - Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. He's sticking his neck out and recommending it. E-prescribing systems. E-prescribing mandate that will hit by 2010. PREDICTS A 44% GAIN! Balance sheet looks reasonable... not a lot of debt... a lot of cash... hmmm... could be a buy!


    Monday, June 30, 2008

    Dow, S&P flat. Kudlow: just doesn't get it... Kramer: new play. MEDICARE. Pitiful. Now we have to guess what idiotic buerocrats are going to do in order to make money. Which companies will benefit from the latest medicare bill????? UGGGGGHHHH... Ok who are they? Big winner: Dialysis. which companies benifit? DVA. FMS. Uggh. Lets invest based on who benifits from idiotic government policies... YES!

    2 "pull in our horns" names. Non economically sensitive names. Medicare play (shit.. the government again..) FMS, MDRS, and RMD. Stocks that "feed at the federal trough"... UGHHHH... hate it... but anyway..


    Friday, June 27, 2008

    Oh man... DOW down again 107 points, about .95%. S&P down .37%, Nasdaq down .37% I think even Kudlow will have to say that there is some kind of problem going on here.... (OBVIOUSLY!!!)

    I guess the big question is, what's going to happen Monday??? Is this it? Is it time for panic to set in?

    Off topic note: this has been bothering me for some time. Google bought YouTube for, what, 1.6 billion??? I love YouTube... in fact, I don't have to buy CD's anymore. All my favorite songs and music videos are on there free of charge. Love it!! BUT... does anyone see a problem with buying a company who's top-watched videos are 99.9% FULLY COPYRIGHTED???? I mean, sure I love to watch Led Zepplin's Battle of Evermore put together with clips from The Lord of the Rings. Beautiful! Fun to watch! But.. they are STEALING the creative work of the artists, directors, and actors. Here, check it out: Battle of Evermore

    Actually my favorite version of this appears to have been deleted from YouTube. But here's another one: Nice! But don't you think Led Zepplin should get a cut of this? And the actors, directors, key grips, and so on from the movie?

    My problem isn't that it's stolen. My problem is that Google paid 1.6 billion for a company that has MOSTLY stolen shit on it!!! Hmmm... I would NOT buy Google...

    KUDLOW: fasten your seatbelts everybody!!!
    OK back to Kudlow. His questions: are stocks doomed???? Dennis Gartman the Gartman letter. David Kotok CNBC contributor. Either it's a triple bottom or we go through this level and it'll be really ugly.

    Luskin: if you take out financials, the market is only down 11% since October... So it's not a bear market.. HAHAHAHA!!! Like, "other than Financials, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

    Stephan Abrams brought up Kohn of the federal reserve, saying he was "the brains behind the federal reserve", and Kudlow reacted violently! Almost as if Abrams threw holy water on him. "It burns!!!!". Sorry, I didn't quite get the argument though...

    Jim Hackett says the obvious: the supply of oil can't keep going up. DUH....

    Luskin: 5 sectors are at all-time-high forward earnigs. We can deal with the oil increases.

    Abrams: second quarter reports. Generally pretty good, but second half guidance may be down. A lot of corporate management shocked by the runup in oil and other commodities.

    Dennis Gartman: most people haven't taken the higher price into consideration, the market hasn't fully discounted it yet.

    Luskin: consumer spending report. "There is no recession" (!)

    Luskin: Telling Maria Bartiromo to "bat her eyes" at Ben Bernanke... a little sexist, don't you think???

    FAST MONEY

    "Worst June since 1930..." Najarian: Alpha Natural (ANR: currently 102.83). and Walter Industries (WLT: currently $107.90) These seem WAY overpriced to me... at first glance...

    Next subprime shoe to drop: HSBC? Citi down 40%, Barclays down 40%, HSBC only down 6%. Najarian: lots of puts. Aggressive speculation that HSBC. With all the puts, projection is HSBC will have some writeoffs.

    Guy: Lehman - don't buy. Going down on light volume. More room on the downside. Wait for the big-volume days on the downside. Wachovia: probably has to cut dividend. Najarian: Regions bank 13% yield due to be cut. Guy: amazing, "monstor opportunity" on the upside for GM. Next week or so. It's coming. Is he nuts? Maybe not. Remember what happened with Chrysler? Down to $3 per share? Then the bailout, up to, what, $50/share? Especially if Democrats get elected this year: do you think they will let GM go under? I would say wait until it gets to 5 or something like Chrysler did and then jump in. Nice bet. Like Roulette. Put your whole paycheck on RED...! It's at 11 now. Yes, I think... hmmm.. not 5... 8... jump in at 8...

    Najarian: loves Merk. Jenuvia diabetes. Migraine drug. Hasn't heard anything from Phizer.

    KRAMER

    Down week: what's going to happen next? Next weeks game plan: Wednesday 10:30 AM, the domestic oil inventory number. He says inventory number is a contrary indicator. Use the "moronic hair-trigger selling" if the inventory goes up, and buy some good oil stocks: BP with a near 5% yield (currently 67.78). Or Kramer favorite Poermian Basin Trust (PBT) with a 10% yield (currently $25.57). ConocoPhillips (COP): refiner with nat gas. Hmmm... don't like refiners... too much government interference... nasty business... I'd rather buy the guys that HELP get the oil out of the ground...

    How about Williams WMB. How about coastal drilling play: CGV, OIL, FTI, and SLL.

    Caveat: if we do NOT get a build in inventories, just wait... bat stays on shoulder...

    Kramer's plan: for a short week, buy some oil stocks if inventory goes up on Wednesday. Not bad! Seems like a GREAT idea...

    BEZ doubled sales but stock down 3%. John McFarland. Stock price $1 higher than in January 1 2007. Baldor Electric. Seems to make sense! Current price $35.38. Hmmm I don't like the balance sheet. I don't like to see 1.6 billion in debt and only 33 million in cash... Sorry I'll pass...

    ANOTHER OFF TOPIC. MONEY MAGAZINE HATE
    You know what I HATE? These's stupid articles Money Magazine has about couples finances. Like, they have $150,000 in savings accounts, $50,000 in retirement accounts, and $100,000 in stocks. And they are 38 years old. And look SO beautiful... MAKES ME SICK!!! I WANT TO PUKE!!! Here I am 50 and I don't have anything close... I guess my strategy of non-stop partying didn't work out they way I was hoping....

    Can't they have an article of a down-and-out guy that was divorced 3 times and paying most of his paycheck in child support, has a slight drinking problem, and is living in a small apartment. WHAT SHOULD HE BE INVESTING IN???? HUH??? hehehe... So he's got $1,000 in emergency savings, $20,000 in a 401K, and he just bought about $100 in stocks... Lets have an article on that! hehehe...


    Thursday, June 26, 2008

    Oh my god,Dow down 358: DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P all down about 3% today.... WOW!

    What will Kudlow say??? Will we see the little blond girl down at the bottom of the screen today??? I DON'T THINK SO!!

    Not that I don't like Kudlow. He's awesome. His enthusiasm! His optimism! But it's just too fun to see how Kudlow reacts to these things. I'm sorry. I shouldn't be like this...

    FAST MONEY. Joe Carter. Libya. Cutting oil output because lawsuits regarding terrorsim. Karen Finderman: normally has her buy list out, but not now. Because of oil. Najarian: added to Alpha Natural recources. USO is working (U.S Oil Fund). Stick with it.

    Guy: haliburton Najarian: Conoco Phillips COP unfairly punished. Way cheaper. Steven Courtes Vera Cruz research problem is the dollar, fed is trapped. Situation dire: need currency intervention.

    Kudlow: Broke the Vince Ferral bottom! Vince Ferral: long drawn out bear market? NO. WHAT?????? Get a grip vince... GET A GRIP.... Vince Ferral is a typical CEO. Just agree with everyone. Don't make waves... TYPICAL!!!! I hate these wussy corporate types. Michael Pento: I love this guy! I just wish he would quit blinking his eyes like that... Warning: we are going to follow China, Vietnam. Dennis Neal: what about inflation? "Today was irrational depression". Another nutcase. He says the market overreacted. DON'T THINK SO...

    KRAMER

    Kramer was back on his dirty lineolium floor again!!! Drinking cheap whisky... Rough!! Kramerica: "Things are spinning out of control".


    Wednesday, June 25, 2008

    Dow: no change, S&P up 1/2 percent, NASDAQ up 1.39%. On Kudlow, not interesting going on in this show. Tommorrow: what do you do? Jim Lacamp: wait and buy energy on dips. Battapaglia: average in later this year. Boyer: stay in equities! (hahahahah!!!!) Lyle Gramley: Fed has left their options wide open. Wayne Angel: it's the dollar, the dollar, the dollar. Fed not acting is getting close to irresponsibility. Key comment by Jim Lacamp: banks have houses on their books that they are not showing! Governor Palin of Alaska was on. She's great!! Put her on the ticket!!!!!!! I can't bear to hear more socialism from Robert Reichhhhhhhhhhaaa.. so moving on to the next show...

    Tuesday, June 24, 2008

    Kudlow Don Luskin - We're not in a recession. At least not yet. 2cd quarter profit will beat expectations (is he crazy???)

    Gary Schilling

    Joe Lavornia

    Joe Batapaglia Jim Awad WP Stewart Asset Management

    Kudlow has a good point about global inflation:

    Robert Hormats Goldman Sachs: Russia, India, Chinese, South Africa, Brazil (very agressive): tightening. Bill Ford Fmr Atlanta Fed President: prefer a raise of rates. We're the only central bank with abnormally low rates (!). Joe Lavornia: says inflation is not a problem. Tremendous deflation in financial assets and housing. Inflation will slow. The core rate is not moving.

    Monday, June 23, 2008

    UPS after hours - problems! Banks at a 5-year low. Najarian - Citigroup - 100,000 puts. Goldman says woops! We were wrong on buying financials. Najarian: nat gas going higher. Mackey: no bottom in sight for GE. Horriffic. 10-year lows: GM, AIG, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Ford, GM.

    Najarian: worst name: GM. best: Wachovia, thinks it's good because of AG Edwards acquisition. Mackey: like the menu at the samenella diner!

    Kudlow: boring. Doesn't want to look at the financials. Just talking about drill drill drill. Which, of course, is correct. But I'm not interested in it...

    One place that Robert Reichhhhhhhhh is correct is that, eventually, YES the oil companies will become like the typewriter companies and the horse and buggy companies. Kudlow says, "not at least for 50 years". I think you may be surprised how the free market will react to $10 gas. You COULD see the oil companies in the same boat with typewriter companies in 20 years or less! James Hackett said the D word!


    Friday, June 20, 2008

    The Dow is down 1.8% today (220 points). S&P down 1.85%. I think I should invest in DOG, which goes up 1% for every 1% the dow goes down. Or the other one, I forget the name, goes up 2% for every 1% the dow falls... But I guess I'm too much of a wussy for that...

    On Kudlow, Brian Westbury is predicting 2% GDP growth in the 2cd quarter, and 3.5% in the third quarter. Is he crazy???

    Joe BadaBing-BadaBang-Battapaglia says no way do we have 3.5% GDP in the third quarter! (Obviously...)

    Marcel Coutu, CEO of Canadian Oil Sands Trust was on. Wow! Oil sands in Canada is pretty cool stuff. He says break-even point for oil sands is around $45 / barrel. Sounds like a VERY interesting investment!

    I love these guys and gals that actually dig into the financial stuff... I think I COULD do it but it's too boring. Or too complicated? Like these credit default swaps. I can't figure it out. Like, for example, Meridth Whitney. She really knows her stuff...









  • Financial Links

    My very favorite blog, one I never miss, I read it every day, is MISH. If you are looking for it and you don't have it bookmarked or cached, it's easier to just put "mish" in google search than trying to type out the whole "globaleconomicanalysis" thing... This blog is here: globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

    Another one: zerohedge.com This one is AWESOME, but sometimes hard to understand. They post CONSTANTLY which is one thing I love about it. The bad thing is that they are ALWAYS negative, NEVER have I seen a positive post, which means you have to take all the negativity with a grain of salt.

    This one I used to like but I don't go there much anymore, but it's worth a look: market-ticker.denninger.net. If you want some ALWAYS massively bearish comments, this is the place to go. The guy seems a little nasty, I wish he'd tone down his comments a little bit. But the analysis is pretty good.